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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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